It takes 72 games to reduce the field at the 2026 World Cup from 48 teams to 32 — and the format designed to manage that process is already facing serious questions.
Expanding the tournament to 48 teams created an immediate structural problem: it was an imperfect number. The previous 32-team format was straightforward — eight groups of four, with the top two progressing to a last 16 and beyond. Adding another 16 nations forced Fifa to find a way to still arrive at a symmetrical knockout stage, and there was no clean solution that preserved the intensity of the old format.
Fifa’s original plan was to use 16 groups of three teams, with the top two in each advancing. But three-team groups carried a familiar danger — the team playing last in the final round would know exactly what result they needed. That concern has historical precedent. When West Germany faced Austria in a standalone final group game, a narrow German win would send both teams through at the expense of Algeria. The match finished 1-0 to West Germany, and Algeria went out. Fifa subsequently changed the rules so all final group fixtures are played simultaneously, but that fix was never compatible with three-team groups.
The eventual solution was to use 12 groups of four teams and bring through the eight best third-placed finishers to complete the last 32. It gets the numbers to work, but it has introduced new complications — situations where teams can play for specific results to either secure qualification or, in effect, influence which opponents they face in the knockout rounds.
South Korea’s position illustrates the dynamic. A record of three points and a goal difference of minus one is likely to be enough to advance as one of the eight best third-placed sides. But had the same result occurred at the 2022 World Cup, where only the top two in each group qualified, they would already be eliminated. Two matches this week have been identified as a particular test of the new format — and one has already produced a convenient draw that should send both teams through.
Image credit: BBC Sport / BBC Sport
