Scotland’s hopes of reaching the knockout stages are hanging by a thread following their defeat to Brazil, leaving them relying on results elsewhere to progress as one of the eight best third-placed sides. Steve Clarke’s men could face an agonising wait until Sunday before knowing whether they have made it through for the first time.
The defeat leaves Scotland sitting on a goal difference of -3 after the 3-0 loss, a significant blow to their prospects. Of the 12 teams who finish third in their respective groups, eight will advance, with goal difference used as a tiebreaker when sides finish level on points. Scotland will need at least four of the teams currently below or level with them to fail to reach three points, or to do so with a worse goal difference.
As things stand, five third-placed teams are ranked below Scotland, while another five share the same points tally — four of whom still have a match to play. According to Opta, teams on three points with a -3 goal difference have just a 42% chance of reaching the last 32, compared to 63% for those on -2 and 84% for those on -1.
Uzbekistan are among the sides who could yet influence Scotland’s fate. A win for them would bring three points, but their goal difference of -7 means they would require a substantial victory over DR Congo to climb above Scotland in the standings. From a purely mathematical standpoint, Scotland’s ideal outcome would be a big Ghana win combined with Panama failing to beat England.
Image credit: BBC Sport / BBC Sport
