The World Cup final at New York New Jersey Stadium may carry implications far beyond crowning a world champion — it could effectively determine who wins the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
History makes for sobering reading for many of the leading contenders. Only four of the past 19 Ballon d’Or wins have gone to a player who did not triumph in the UEFA Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America that same year. Messi accounts for three of those exceptions — in 2010, 2012 and 2019 — with Ronaldo taking the other in 2013. That record stacks the odds against Harry Kane, Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham, despite all putting up extraordinary goalscoring numbers in 2025-26.
Ousmane Dembele claimed the 2025 award after winning the Champions League with Paris St-Germain, and a successful defence of that trophy means both Dembele and teammate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia remain in contention for this year’s prize.
The final itself, though, brings two compelling candidates into direct conflict. At 39, Messi is chasing a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or. While his club statistics for Inter Miami come with the caveat of Major League Soccer’s level of opposition, his World Cup performances have underlined he remains among the very best. On the other side, 19-year-old Lamine Yamal is bidding to go one better than his second-place finish in 2025 and claim the award for the first time.
With the race described as one of the tightest in history, the decisive moment may not yet have arrived — but the World Cup final could change that in one night.
Image credit: BBC Sport / BBC Sport
